Following what was a bumper 2016-2017 season, Canstar’s Agriculture Industry Outlook for 2017-2018 notes that in the coming year the wheat and grain sector is expected to slow, with global supplies keeping prices low and export earnings predicted to fall.[1]
Australian production is forecast to be just over 20 million tonnes in 2017–18, which would be the lowest since 2007-2008. Spring weather was unfavourable for Australian Eastern states’ wheat crops, and yields are forecast to be below average for all states except Victoria.[2]
ABARES notes that October rainfall aided crops in south-eastern New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia but came too late to benefit most crops in Queensland and New South Wales. In Western Australia, a mild finish to the season has resulted in better yield prospects for this state than an earlier forecast.[3]
Australian wheat exports in 2017–18 are forecast to fall by 24 per cent to 17 million tonnes and the value of Australian wheat exports is forecast to fall by 18 per cent to $5.0 billion.[4]
[1] ABARES 2017, Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017. CC BY 4.0
[2] ABARES 2017, Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017. CC BY 4.0
[3] ABARES 2017, Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017. CC BY 4.0
[4] ABARES 2017, Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2017. CC BY 4.0
